Uganda finds itself at a crucial juncture, with the 2026 elections being billed as a key moment in its political Transition. Yet, as opposition figure Hon. Salam Musumba warned in a recent Agora X Space discussion, this “moment of reckoning” might be nothing more than a well-crafted illusion. She broke down Uganda’s long-standing transition crisis, where military dominance, political manipulation, and dynastic ambitions undermine the very idea of a democratic handover. The key issue? Uganda’s youth—pushed aside but full of potential—must decide if they’ll drive change or remain passive bystanders. This note reflects on Uganda’s political landscape and explores possible ways forward in addressing this pressing question.

Uganda finds itself at a crucial juncture, with the 2026 elections being billed as a key moment in its political Transition. Yet, as opposition figure Hon. Salam Musumba warned in a recent Agora X Space discussion, this “moment of reckoning” might be nothing more than a well-crafted illusion. She broke down Uganda’s long-standing transition crisis, where military dominance, political manipulation, and dynastic ambitions undermine the very idea of a democratic handover. The key issue? Uganda’s youth—pushed aside but full of potential—must decide if they’ll drive change or remain passive bystanders. This note reflects on Uganda’s political landscape and explores possible ways forward in addressing this pressing question.

So the power structures at the moment are largely in, one, primarily the security organs, two, the technocratic state, which is a civil service, et cetera, three, the economic structure, and as we were talking about earlier, cultural institutions, and others. And then individuals kind of work together with others within these structures. The way that the structures are presently arraigned are top-down, very disciplined, in that sense, security structure, which enables one person at the helm of that to generally have an upper hand when it comes to elections, electioneering, campaigns, et cetera.

Yes, yes, we can hear you. So, General, now that you’re here, let’s get right into the discussion. The question of transition in Uganda has been here for a while. I think one can say it started in 2004 and 2005, around the time the term limits were removed from the constitution.

In many places, political transitions often trigger violence or chaos. Andrew, who’s here with us, often refers to Libya as an example, and we’re all aware of what’s happening in other African nations like Zimbabwe and Sudan. When President Museveni came to power in 1986, he spoke of a “fundamental change” and initially promised to lead for just four years before handing power to civilians.

In many places, political transitions often trigger violence or chaos. Andrew, who’s here with us, often refers to Libya as an example, and we’re all aware of what’s happening in other African nations like Zimbabwe and Sudan. When President Museveni came to power in 1986, he spoke of a “fundamental change” and initially promised to lead for just four years before handing power to civilians.

Agora recently hosted a Twitter Space featuring Andrew Mwenda, Managing Director of The Independent magazine, to discuss Uganda’s political transition, exploring both the risks and prospects. The conversation centered on President Yoweri Museveni’s long-standing rule, the potential for a power shift, and the challenges Uganda may face in navigating a peaceful transition of leadership. Mwenda shared insights on the influence of Museveni’s family, the state of the opposition, and what lies ahead for the country’s governance.

Ugx 1.077 Trillion was allocated for the parish Development Model. In contrast, Ugx 1.085 Trillion was allocated to only 5 items marked as “Wasteful Expenditures” by Parliament’s minority report.
PDM is a government programme aimed at lifting 39% of Ugandan households from subsistence to a money-based economy