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Dan October 10, 2024

Museveni’s grip on Power and the Transition Puzzle in Uganda

Agora recently hosted a Twitter Space featuring Andrew Mwenda, Managing Director of The Independent magazine, to discuss Uganda’s political transition, exploring both the risks and prospects. The conversation centered on President Yoweri Museveni’s long-standing rule, the potential for a power shift, and the challenges Uganda may face in navigating a peaceful transition of leadership. Mwenda shared insights on the influence of Museveni’s family, the state of the opposition, and what lies ahead for the country’s governance.

Introduction:

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni has been in power since 1986, a tenure that has spurred extensive debates over Uganda’s future, the potential transition of leadership, and the role of his family in politics. Museveni’s leadership, defined by both strategic governance and a messianic view of his role, presents a complex scenario for Uganda’s political future. This policy note elaborates on insights from Andrew Mwenda, focusing on Museveni’s leadership style, the growing influence of his family, and the challenges of ensuring a smooth power transition after his eventual departure. With the opposition significantly weakened and internal family dynamics evolving, Uganda faces an uncertain political landscape.

Museveni’s Messianic Leadership

Museveni’s leadership is marked by what Andrew Mwenda describes as a “messianic belief” in his role as Uganda’s savior. This conviction goes beyond a personal desire for power; it is rooted in a deep-seated belief that Museveni is indispensable to Uganda’s survival. Museveni perceives himself as a leader chosen by destiny to rescue Uganda from the brink of destruction, having fought against dictatorships and guided the country through times of turmoil. His narrative of sacrifice – from fighting in the bush during the 1980s liberation struggle to ruling for over three decades – reinforces his belief that no one else can steer the nation as effectively.

This messianic worldview diminishes the likelihood of Museveni willingly stepping down, as he sees his continued leadership as essential for Uganda’s future. His reluctance to hand over power is comparable to other long-serving leaders such as Fidel Castro and Muammar Gaddafi, who also held a personal belief in their roles as irreplaceable leaders until their deaths in office. Museveni’s narrative also suggests that he fears Uganda’s collapse without his stewardship, further solidifying his intention to die in office rather than step down voluntarily.

The First Family’s Expanding Role in Governance

While Museveni may not explicitly seek to establish a dynastic rule, his family members have become increasingly influential in Uganda’s political and military spheres. Key figures include his son, Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and his younger brother, Gen. Salim Saleh, both of whom hold significant military and political power.

Muhoozi, in particular, has emerged as a possible successor, supported by the grassroots MK Movement. Salim Saleh has long been a powerbroker behind the scenes, wielding influence over Uganda’s economy and security sectors. However, despite their individual strengths, family members alone cannot sustain governance in Uganda. Mwenda points out that any attempt by the first family to maintain control would require forging coalitions with various stakeholders, including traditional institutions, religious leaders, military elites, business communities, and National Resistance Movement (NRM) veterans.

The family’s influence, while formidable, does not guarantee a smooth transition of power. Governance requires more than just military control or political influence – it demands soft power, diplomacy, and the ability to build consensus among key sectors of society. The family’s prominence in Uganda’s power structure must therefore be understood within a broader context of alliance-building and political negotiation.

Internal Power Struggles Within the Museveni Family

As opposition forces in Uganda have weakened over the years, internal rivalries within the Museveni family are becoming more apparent. Mwenda suggests that a future power struggle could emerge between different family factions, particularly between Muhoozi and other ambitious figures like Museveni’s son-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo. While Muhoozi has garnered support through the MK Movement and his position in the military, other family members may seek to challenge his ascendancy or assert their own political ambitions.

The NRM’s initial strength stemmed from its ability to suppress both internal dissent and external opposition. However, as opposition parties and political rivals have been systematically weakened, the potential for conflicts within the ruling family has grown. Should Museveni’s health decline or his influence wane, these family tensions could lead to significant political instability. Museveni’s delicate position as both the head of state and the patriarch of a powerful family means that he cannot easily mediate such disputes without risking favoritism or alienating key figures.

The possibility of a power struggle between Muhoozi and other family members highlights the complexity of Uganda’s political landscape. If unresolved, these internal divisions could weaken the NRM and lead to a fragmented power base, undermining the party’s long-standing dominance over Ugandan politics.

The MK Movement: Between Genuine Support and Opportunism

Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s rise in prominence has been accompanied by the emergence of the MK Movement, a grassroots initiative that promotes him as a potential successor to Museveni. The movement enjoys support from a diverse array of individuals, some of whom are genuinely loyal to Muhoozi due to his military background and perceived clean public record. However, Mwenda notes that many within the MK Movement are opportunists, backing Muhoozi not out of admiration, but out of a pragmatic calculation that aligning with Museveni’s son could secure their political and economic interests in a post-Museveni Uganda.

This opportunistic support reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding Uganda’s political future. With the opposition heavily suppressed and the risks of joining anti-government movements high, many Ugandans see backing Muhoozi as a safer alternative to pushing for more radical political change. For these individuals, supporting Muhoozi represents a path to maintaining stability while still advocating for a transition of power. However, the presence of opportunistic supporters raises questions about the movement’s sustainability and its capacity to effect genuine reform or change within the NRM.

The Transition Challenge: Navigating Post-Museveni Uganda

The question of who will succeed Museveni is a matter of national importance, with far-reaching implications for Uganda’s future stability. Museveni’s reluctance to step down, combined with the absence of a clear and unified opposition, complicates the transition process. If Museveni were to die in office, as many expect, Uganda could face a power vacuum, with various factions within the NRM and Museveni’s family vying for control.

Mwenda argues that the lack of a strong and credible opposition has made it more difficult to envision an orderly transition. Over the years, Museveni has effectively neutralized opposition parties through a combination of co-optation, repression, and electoral manipulation. As a result, the opposition is too weak to present a viable alternative to NRM rule. This weak opposition also limits the likelihood of a peaceful transfer of power, as internal NRM divisions could intensify in the absence of external competition.

The transition will require careful navigation to prevent a potential crisis. Should family infighting escalate or factionalism within the NRM deepen, Uganda could face a period of political instability. It is essential for policymakers, both within Uganda and internationally, to consider strategies for ensuring a peaceful and orderly transition, including fostering dialogue between the first family, military, opposition forces, and civil society.

Policy Implications:

Managing the Power Transition: Uganda’s stability will hinge on how the transition from Museveni’s rule is handled. Policymakers must consider proactive steps to facilitate dialogue among key stakeholders, including the first family, the military, and civil society, to ensure a peaceful transition. Regional organizations like the African Union (AU) and the East African Community (EAC) could play a role in mediating this dialogue.

Balancing Family and Institutional Power: While the first family wields significant influence, maintaining Uganda’s stability post-Museveni will require balancing family interests with broader institutional governance. Building coalitions that include traditional leaders, religious figures, business elites, and NRM veterans will help mitigate the risk of family-based factionalism and ensure a more inclusive governance model.

Strengthening Opposition and Civil Society: The current weakness of Uganda’s opposition is a significant barrier to democratic transitions. International donors, civil society organizations, and democracy-supporting groups should focus on strengthening opposition parties, civil society, and grassroots movements. A stronger opposition would enhance political competition and reduce the likelihood of internal power struggles within the NRM.

Engaging Uganda’s Youth and Grassroots Movements: Uganda’s youth, increasingly frustrated with the status quo, could play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s future. Supporting grassroots movements like the MK Movement or other youth-led initiatives could provide a platform for political engagement. However, it is essential to ensure that these movements are genuinely inclusive and representative of the broader population, rather than serving as vehicles for opportunism.

Conclusion:

President Museveni’s prolonged grip on power, driven by a messianic belief in his indispensability, makes a voluntary transition highly unlikely. The future of Uganda’s political landscape will depend on how well the country navigates the complex dynamics within the first family, the NRM, and the broader society. Strengthening opposition forces, engaging Uganda’s youth, and fostering dialogue among key stakeholders will be critical to ensuring a peaceful transition and maintaining stability in post-Museveni Uganda.

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